At the moment,
Most major countries are in near-zero growth.
China - unpegged US dollar and pegged against a basket of currencies (12.9%USD, 6.3%Euro, 9.4%Jap, 7.5%HKD and South Korean won, with a smaller proportion made up of the British pound, Thai baht, Russian ruble, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Singapore dollar) >> Chinese economy is highly dependent on the Western countries. But, how the hell China GDP is still positive. The govt must have pumped a lot of money into the system. this is one thing to watch out for investments in China.
US - still in bad condition. The number shows from the Home sales was down to 276K. What opportunities can I take from here? No wonder, Ben Bernake mentioned before the US economy was weak 1 month ago.
Bonds price went up - maybe it is good to short them.
Precious metals (Gold, Silver, platinum and etc..) - this will be a good news for precious metals. As long as Ben bernanke is on the board, gold price will go up. he has stated and done that he will "print money" to keep the US economy intact.
I am currently holding Gold, but trying to reduce the size of gold and transfer them to other precious metals. Why? It is because I am afraid of Central banks that they would sell their holdings on gold. This will cause an increase of supply in the market, most probably, and cause the gold to go down. Evidence? I think a month ago, there was a swap contract between BIS and a commercial bank (if I am not wrong, the commercial bank is acting on behalf of the central bank). The central bank does not want to let the public knows who they are since it can cause panic.
Anyway, the swap was about giving their gold holdings as collateral for a certain amount of money that the central bank would like to borrow. As a result of that, the gold price went down for a few days. Another thing to watch out.
Euro - Strong growth in Germany and weak on other nations like Spain and Greece.
Yen – rallying up. The government mentioned to tame the rally. Good opportunity to short?? Japan is an economic failure since the country is trapped in a deflationary spiral. The government debt is over 200% of GDP. But why the country hasn’t blown up into pieces? When will this occur?
AUD – cash rate is higher 4.5%. The economy is highly dependent on China – exporting. Thus, I have to watch out the Chinese economy.
Oil – around 71-72. >> due to global slowdown and over supplies of fuel.
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