Cabcharge 1

I have taken into an interest into Cabcharge since the price is low and it has a monopoly in Australia.
Let me see what i will find and my decision on whether to buy the stocks.

The moment i looked into the cashflow statement, i dislike one thing. the free cash flow for the past few years are negative. If the company does not paid increasing the dividend amount, the FCFF would be in positive. from the way i see it, the money inflow from the operations are being using of CAPEX, but the money borrowed from the lender is being used to pay the dividends. this is pretty dangerous.

a mere look in the high ROA or ROE - the company is telling us that the company is a strong one. but this is wrong, when you look into it more closely, the assets are being increased to the heavy borrowing from the lenders and, sadly, quite a lot of money being drained out through the dividend.


++++++++++++++++++++++++

I just had a walk around my neighborhood and the more i think about this company the more i am getting confused. As i mentioned before that the company is either using the money borrowed to expan the business or pay the dividend.

The part i don't get is why they still want to pay such high dividends during this recession.
i made $100 profit, the expenses, expanding business is $100 and so i have $0. so i borrowed money to pay dividend of an amount $40.

Does that make any sense at all??
If i owned the business i wouldn't borrow money to expand the business, i would use the cashflow to expand the business and reduce the dividends.
Is it because the management people are old and so they decided to withdraw the money as much as possible.
plus, the return of invested capital is around 20-30%, isn't it more logical to invest the capital back into the company instead of handing them out to shareholders???


With the high profit margin - this business has the potential to be a good investment.

am i looking it wrong?

movement of FTSE100 - odd

The movement of FTSE 100 is very odd, it gives me the feeling that someone is buying a large amount. i don't know who, but definitely there is someone. Maybe his intention is to lift up the UK index. pure manipulation? i don't know.

Momentum on the upside

It seemed the market now has the momentum to go up.
If the American and European leaders are not amateur, they would take this advantage to "publish good news" to bring up the confidence or boost up the market.

It is a shame to see that the policies revolve around the stock market and to see the citizens of different countries are heavily dependent on the government to look after them. It's sad to know this. Don't we all have backbone?

this weekend - smells fishy

Something is brewing.

The buy side on UK stock exchange is stronger than i expected.
Plus, with the recent events such as meetings among the European leaders is like giving us a hint - printing money is coming soon.

maybe the announcement will make during this weekend.

At the moment, i am long and not hedged and i am planning to remain unhedged till monday.

we will see.

Monday morning in Australia? what will the stock market do?

At the moment, I have longed positions due to trying to picking the bottom of the market. No doubt, I kept in mind of not over-leveraging since I know how serious the situation can be. 

Initially, on Friday i predicted that all markets would go up on Monday. But after hearing the downgrades on US on saturday, i am certain the market will go down. 

So my strategy now is to hedge all my positions as i feared the market will go down tremendously on monday. Depending on how fast the index goes down, i will increase my short positions to make additional profit. 

We'll see.

Most are saying the market is going up

Reading the news and watching videos. Most are saying that the market is going up. Should i follow the herd? is this the bottom of the market?

I am feeling kinda nervous, i guessed this is normal. But i won't get confused and panic. I am planning my next strategy for the long side - long term investment on valued companies - australian companies.

we'll see how the market moves in these 2 - 3 weeks.

Monday monday... will the market be running in havoc??

apparently i am wrong

Here i thought that FTSE will close above the opening price and i was wrong.
Once i noticed that no such upward reaction from FTSE100 - only hovering around 5260-5246. i have decided to short it. Trading is a difficult task.

At that time, i was constantly looking at the chart - the movements of prices look odd. it went down too easily and felt that there were no supports. the prices moved for example this way:
1) it's going up - 5319 to 5340 at around 4 seconds then it starts to break 5340 and stopped around 5343 and the new support is 5322.
2) when it's going down - we just have to reverse it.

At the moment, my time frame is 30 mins but make my decisions based on 2-3 minutes

will today the last time FTSE be in red?

from the market reaction after the announcement of us unemployment rate and non farm employment change, it's very likely.

Now what we all need a vote of confidence from obama. if he managed to calm the market, that's it!! the market will go up for the next couple of days. after that who knows..

Italy PM WTF??

DJ Italy PM Asks Italy Households Not To Sell Shares.

I just read the above at 22:47 sydney time. How stupid that the PM can be?
But one thing for sure the stimulus injection will definitely be done, if it has to.

My oo My

What's happening to my trading and investing? I had a slump quite a big one after i lost AUD2K in forex, specifically AUD/USD the dramatic rise to 1.08.

I hated myself for weeks. I was so sure that my strategy will work but it failed. Why? OVER - LEVERAGE. again WHY? OVER-freaking-LEVERAGE.

The rule of the game is protecting your capital and do not focus on how much you gain but how much you can minimise your lost. The gain will take care itself eventually.

NOTE TO MYSELF: WHAT YOU LOSE PERMANENTLY IS HARDER TO GAIN. this could be explained in terms of maths, simply.