Silver Trade (3) 17.08.2012

Add more position (8/27/2012 9:07 AM)

Entry: 30.93

Stop Loss: 29.93

Exit: ??

Position Size: 0.4

Reason: A breakout type of trade. Resistance = 30.661

8/27/2012 9:07 AM

Review

Silver breached the 30.661. Position will be added but how.

Option1

Should I put a buy order at 30.795 (previous high on 23 aug 2012) or 30.728? Since the difference is  around 7 points, I am comfortable with putting at 30.795

(-) I can't predict where the price will go in the future, it might come down and it might go up.

Option2

Should I buy it now at 30.895?

(-)Observing the price action, it seemed there is not much of gas.

(+)If I do, I will have to extend the stop loss and reduce the no of contract. Thus, I won't miss the potential upwards.

I am comfortable of doing option 2.

Oil Trade 22.08.2012

Market Sentiment

The market is bullish despite with the recent 0.5% decreased on Tuesday. According to the news and blogs, the hype is because of the expectation of the market for central banks to "print out  money". With an increase of money supply, the long lending rate decreases. This will hope to spur spending and economy  may seem to improve. With this hope, markets rally around the world. Will this hope turn into reality? This will an interesting play to watch.

Strategy

Oil - I will keep my Oil ETF positions.

Long Oil

Entry: 96.52

Exit: ??

Stop loss: 95.52

Position Size: 0.5

Reason: there should be a upward pressure when it touches 200SMA.

Result:

It is unfortunate, I got stopped out as the market whipsawed. I will have to widen the stop loss from 100 pts to 150 pts.

Silver Trade (2) 17.08.2012

8/23/2012 9:55 PM

Review

I added another position at 29.85 with a stop loss of 28.80

I moved the stop loss of the 1st open position to 28.38

I will be adding another position when it breaches 30.661

Silver Trade (1) 17.08.2012

Long Silver

Entry: 28.20

Stop Loss: 27.00

Exit: 30.661

Position Size: 0.5

Reason: A breakout type of trade. Resistance = 28.247

8/21/2012 9:55 AM

Review

Silver Trade - I have cut down the position from 1 to 0.5 contract as the price decreases dramatically (pretty quick). To offset it, I have increased the stop loss to 27.00.

Future:

1. I will be adding more positions - entry points will be using moving averages and chandelier-stop
1. I have not decided where to add the positions as I will need more data
2. I am definitely not going to add positions now since it just touches the 100 SMA at around 28.715

Oil Trade 17.08.2012

Friday, August 17, 2012

11:40 PM

Strategy

Oil - I will keep my Oil ETF positions. I will short spot WTI because it is approaching 200 SMA (Daily Chart).

Short Oil

Entry: 96.44

Exit: 95.47

Position Size: 1

Reason: there should be a downward pressure when it touches 200SMA and it is the first time it touches the 200 SMA after April 2012.

8/21/2012 9:55 AM 

Review

Oil Trade - I have been stopped out at 96.74 and lost 0.5% of my capital.

Mistakes & Lesson Learned:

1. Stop loss is not wide enough >> my future losses will be 100 points instead of 30 points
1. Please analyse the ATR to know the daily volatility / movement

adding positions

WTI has broken through 94-95, i will keep my ETF oil crude positions.

I am planning to add more positions to oil positions or add new holdings in silver. 

I didn't expect the market to go up dramatically on Thursday. I was expecting it to be on Friday. 

The market is so hyped up. Will there be a QE3? I seriously don't think so with the recent results (sales in July is up). To be honest, it is confusing because there are good and bad economic results. Therefore, QE3 will not be rolled out in september and Operation Twist is sufficient.

How will the market react? this is hard. it is a not an obvious sign because:
1. if QE3 rolled out, market would go up.
2. if no QE3 but continuous economic data kept on published, market would go up.
3.Economic data is seriously bad, QE3 will be rolled out, market will go up. However, before the announcement of QE3, most probably the market will go down significantly due to the fear and greed.

How am I going to take advantage of the market?
I have already placed long positions since months ago. My long term portfolio is 80% long in selected good businesses, agriculture ETF and oil ETF.

I will cut 50% of my holdings on oil, if WTI doesn't break through 94-95 resistance level and thinking of shorting it.
I will definitely look for good quality stocks along the way. So far, I haven't found one yet since i haven't so much time looking into it.