does this mean a downturn is coming?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/MARKETS-SPECTATOR-Goldman-says-buy-buy-buy-pd20121012-YZ6XJ?opendocument&src=idp&emcontent_asx_financial-markets&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=116920&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary

outlook

US

1. Good manufacturing data - ISM
1. This may tell us that US is recovering. This is a big maybe.
2. From June to Aug, the data has been below 50. September is above 50.

2. Fiscal Cliff - still in the process
1. Republicans do not want a tax increase
2. Democrats do not want to extend the Bush tax cats

3. Toyota Camry, Honda sales rose 37.8% in September
1. This is due to the cheap credit.

4. Attempts to spur the growth
1. QE3 to improve the growth of the economy until this December (40 Billion)
2. Freddie is in discussion with the Federal Housing Finance Agency to provide cheap debt  (or loans) to investors who buy homes in foreclosure to rent them out. This might jump-start a housing recovery.
1. Federal Housing Finance Agency still shows an unwillingness to approve such plan because it will cause difficulties for banks to compete.

5. Note:
1. This Friday - US jobs report\
1. This will determine whether the US economy is showing any resilience, after having Good ISM.

Euro

1. Speculation - Spain will get a bailout with not much stricter conditions.
2. Greece is being graded.
1. This will determine whether the country get the next bailout fund.
1. Greece said it can cut back 12 billion euros spending.
2. IMF does not believe that. IMF wants more debt to be cut, instead of prolonging the time.

3. ECB is prohibited from directly purchasing bonds from governments. They can only use the bond purchase program to prevent deflation.
4. Eurozone PMI feel from 46.3 to 46.1 in September.

GBP

1. The chart above shows hedge funds are now net long GBP. It shows after it reached the top it will come down again.
1. There might be a breakout soon?
2. It is very unlikely because according to the sentiment survey, it is currently 70%

2. UK's economy is still contracting.
1. To offset this the BOE is doing "QE".

China
 

1. China PMI is at lowest since Nov 2010 - PMI fell from 56.3 to 53.7 in September 2012.
1. This tells us the growth in the manufacturing is at a slower pace.
2. It may mean China's economy is maturing and thus a transition may happen from manufacturing industry to services industry. Growth in the services industry would be observed.
3. However, the services industry will also feel the heat from the recession regardless.

2. To increase artificial growth, China will loosen interest rates and reserve ratio through the end of the year. Increase capital spending on the infrastructure projects.

3. China exports are down
1. Negative on air freight volumes
2. Negative on rail freight volume

Australia

1. Australia trade deficit is widening - export decreases a lot
1. In Aug 2.03 Billion; July 1.53 Billion
1. The drop is due to the 7% drop in earnings from metal ore and nation's exports. It accounts 20% of the nation's exports. The price is 46% lower than February 2011
2. This shows the economy growth in China is slowing down

Trading:
 

1. I am still accumulating silver.
2. Oil is in my watch list. It is now 88.14 and I am looking for an entry point.
1. In daily chart, I am waiting for the next bar to be smaller than the previous (after the big dropped to 87.80).
2. I am waiting for Stochastic to show bullish divergence.
3. Next support is 87.26

Silver

Comment:

1. It in range between 35.19 and 26.084.
1. If it moves passed 35.25, it will be a support line.
2. If it moves passed 37.504, it is a bullish sign

2. I will be cautious, put a tight stop loss.  

Outlook

US

1. Good manufacturing data - ISM
1. This may tell us that US is recovering. This is a big maybe.
2. From June to Aug, the data has been below 50. September is above 50.

2. Fiscal Cliff - still in the process
1. Republicans do not want a tax increase
2. Democrats do not want to extend the Bush tax cauts

Euro

1. Speculation - spain will get a bailout with not much stricter conditions.
2. Greece is being graded.
1. This will determine whether the country get the next bailout fund.

3. ECB is prohibited from directly purchasing bonds from governments. They can only use the bond purchase program to prevent deflation.

Trading:
 

1. I am still accumulating silver.
2. Oil is in my watch list. It is still too expensive at $93 WTI