cabcharge

Watching Cabcharge's share price drecreasing gives me the feeling like watching the first GFC makes an impact. There is definitely an opportunity lies in this stock but the problem is the surcharge.

Will cabcharge survive by claiming their charges as service fees? 

More research has to be done here.

Oil Trading

The news is now focus on the "quarrel" between Palestine and Israel.So the price of WTI is sustainable.

Are we starting to forget about the dispute in Iran about their Nuclear Power? Iran still does not budge on their nuclear development. This shows their dedication on fully developed their facility. What will happen then? It will be an interesting event to watch.
Will the world police gives the green light to order an Air Strike before / after the reactor is built?
Will Israel do the same as US?
Will Iran strike back? This is very likely.


One thing for sure, oil will definitely go up if such event occurs.

the main question to ask - when this will happen? The shortcomings of trading Oil in margin are paying the interests and when the market goes against your position. How much capital do I need to sustain my position or to keep betting until such event occurs? Risk management or capital protection is paramount. I wished I could bet a much larger position that it is now but I can't.

WTI Oil

My position in (long) Oil is larger than the usual.
Is it immoral to hope a war breakout for my own benefits?
Is it justifiable if i recognise the pattern (i.e. whenever there is a potential war, the oil price will increase significantly) and i make a bet on it?
Or does it matter at all?

does this mean a downturn is coming?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/MARKETS-SPECTATOR-Goldman-says-buy-buy-buy-pd20121012-YZ6XJ?opendocument&src=idp&emcontent_asx_financial-markets&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=116920&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary

outlook

US

1. Good manufacturing data - ISM
1. This may tell us that US is recovering. This is a big maybe.
2. From June to Aug, the data has been below 50. September is above 50.

2. Fiscal Cliff - still in the process
1. Republicans do not want a tax increase
2. Democrats do not want to extend the Bush tax cats

3. Toyota Camry, Honda sales rose 37.8% in September
1. This is due to the cheap credit.

4. Attempts to spur the growth
1. QE3 to improve the growth of the economy until this December (40 Billion)
2. Freddie is in discussion with the Federal Housing Finance Agency to provide cheap debt  (or loans) to investors who buy homes in foreclosure to rent them out. This might jump-start a housing recovery.
1. Federal Housing Finance Agency still shows an unwillingness to approve such plan because it will cause difficulties for banks to compete.

5. Note:
1. This Friday - US jobs report\
1. This will determine whether the US economy is showing any resilience, after having Good ISM.

Euro

1. Speculation - Spain will get a bailout with not much stricter conditions.
2. Greece is being graded.
1. This will determine whether the country get the next bailout fund.
1. Greece said it can cut back 12 billion euros spending.
2. IMF does not believe that. IMF wants more debt to be cut, instead of prolonging the time.

3. ECB is prohibited from directly purchasing bonds from governments. They can only use the bond purchase program to prevent deflation.
4. Eurozone PMI feel from 46.3 to 46.1 in September.

GBP

1. The chart above shows hedge funds are now net long GBP. It shows after it reached the top it will come down again.
1. There might be a breakout soon?
2. It is very unlikely because according to the sentiment survey, it is currently 70%

2. UK's economy is still contracting.
1. To offset this the BOE is doing "QE".

China
 

1. China PMI is at lowest since Nov 2010 - PMI fell from 56.3 to 53.7 in September 2012.
1. This tells us the growth in the manufacturing is at a slower pace.
2. It may mean China's economy is maturing and thus a transition may happen from manufacturing industry to services industry. Growth in the services industry would be observed.
3. However, the services industry will also feel the heat from the recession regardless.

2. To increase artificial growth, China will loosen interest rates and reserve ratio through the end of the year. Increase capital spending on the infrastructure projects.

3. China exports are down
1. Negative on air freight volumes
2. Negative on rail freight volume

Australia

1. Australia trade deficit is widening - export decreases a lot
1. In Aug 2.03 Billion; July 1.53 Billion
1. The drop is due to the 7% drop in earnings from metal ore and nation's exports. It accounts 20% of the nation's exports. The price is 46% lower than February 2011
2. This shows the economy growth in China is slowing down

Trading:
 

1. I am still accumulating silver.
2. Oil is in my watch list. It is now 88.14 and I am looking for an entry point.
1. In daily chart, I am waiting for the next bar to be smaller than the previous (after the big dropped to 87.80).
2. I am waiting for Stochastic to show bullish divergence.
3. Next support is 87.26

Silver

Comment:

1. It in range between 35.19 and 26.084.
1. If it moves passed 35.25, it will be a support line.
2. If it moves passed 37.504, it is a bullish sign

2. I will be cautious, put a tight stop loss.  

Outlook

US

1. Good manufacturing data - ISM
1. This may tell us that US is recovering. This is a big maybe.
2. From June to Aug, the data has been below 50. September is above 50.

2. Fiscal Cliff - still in the process
1. Republicans do not want a tax increase
2. Democrats do not want to extend the Bush tax cauts

Euro

1. Speculation - spain will get a bailout with not much stricter conditions.
2. Greece is being graded.
1. This will determine whether the country get the next bailout fund.

3. ECB is prohibited from directly purchasing bonds from governments. They can only use the bond purchase program to prevent deflation.

Trading:
 

1. I am still accumulating silver.
2. Oil is in my watch list. It is still too expensive at $93 WTI

Beauchamp Falls

2 weeks ago, i went for trecking in Blackheath [a small town in NSW]. I simply loved it - the atmosphere, sceneries, especially the waterfalls.

one of the waterfalls that captivated me is Beauchamp Falls, i will definitely be coming back again in the next 2 months.

i would recommend others to check it out if you are looking for an adventure and tranquillity.
http://www.wildwalks.com/bushwalking-and-hiking-in-nsw/blue-mountains-blackheath-/beauchamp-falls.html

Silver Trade (3) 17.08.2012

Add more position (8/27/2012 9:07 AM)

Entry: 30.93

Stop Loss: 29.93

Exit: ??

Position Size: 0.4

Reason: A breakout type of trade. Resistance = 30.661

8/27/2012 9:07 AM

Review

Silver breached the 30.661. Position will be added but how.

Option1

Should I put a buy order at 30.795 (previous high on 23 aug 2012) or 30.728? Since the difference is  around 7 points, I am comfortable with putting at 30.795

(-) I can't predict where the price will go in the future, it might come down and it might go up.

Option2

Should I buy it now at 30.895?

(-)Observing the price action, it seemed there is not much of gas.

(+)If I do, I will have to extend the stop loss and reduce the no of contract. Thus, I won't miss the potential upwards.

I am comfortable of doing option 2.

Oil Trade 22.08.2012

Market Sentiment

The market is bullish despite with the recent 0.5% decreased on Tuesday. According to the news and blogs, the hype is because of the expectation of the market for central banks to "print out  money". With an increase of money supply, the long lending rate decreases. This will hope to spur spending and economy  may seem to improve. With this hope, markets rally around the world. Will this hope turn into reality? This will an interesting play to watch.

Strategy

Oil - I will keep my Oil ETF positions.

Long Oil

Entry: 96.52

Exit: ??

Stop loss: 95.52

Position Size: 0.5

Reason: there should be a upward pressure when it touches 200SMA.

Result:

It is unfortunate, I got stopped out as the market whipsawed. I will have to widen the stop loss from 100 pts to 150 pts.

Silver Trade (2) 17.08.2012

8/23/2012 9:55 PM

Review

I added another position at 29.85 with a stop loss of 28.80

I moved the stop loss of the 1st open position to 28.38

I will be adding another position when it breaches 30.661

Silver Trade (1) 17.08.2012

Long Silver

Entry: 28.20

Stop Loss: 27.00

Exit: 30.661

Position Size: 0.5

Reason: A breakout type of trade. Resistance = 28.247

8/21/2012 9:55 AM

Review

Silver Trade - I have cut down the position from 1 to 0.5 contract as the price decreases dramatically (pretty quick). To offset it, I have increased the stop loss to 27.00.

Future:

1. I will be adding more positions - entry points will be using moving averages and chandelier-stop
1. I have not decided where to add the positions as I will need more data
2. I am definitely not going to add positions now since it just touches the 100 SMA at around 28.715

Oil Trade 17.08.2012

Friday, August 17, 2012

11:40 PM

Strategy

Oil - I will keep my Oil ETF positions. I will short spot WTI because it is approaching 200 SMA (Daily Chart).

Short Oil

Entry: 96.44

Exit: 95.47

Position Size: 1

Reason: there should be a downward pressure when it touches 200SMA and it is the first time it touches the 200 SMA after April 2012.

8/21/2012 9:55 AM 

Review

Oil Trade - I have been stopped out at 96.74 and lost 0.5% of my capital.

Mistakes & Lesson Learned:

1. Stop loss is not wide enough >> my future losses will be 100 points instead of 30 points
1. Please analyse the ATR to know the daily volatility / movement

adding positions

WTI has broken through 94-95, i will keep my ETF oil crude positions.

I am planning to add more positions to oil positions or add new holdings in silver. 

I didn't expect the market to go up dramatically on Thursday. I was expecting it to be on Friday. 

The market is so hyped up. Will there be a QE3? I seriously don't think so with the recent results (sales in July is up). To be honest, it is confusing because there are good and bad economic results. Therefore, QE3 will not be rolled out in september and Operation Twist is sufficient.

How will the market react? this is hard. it is a not an obvious sign because:
1. if QE3 rolled out, market would go up.
2. if no QE3 but continuous economic data kept on published, market would go up.
3.Economic data is seriously bad, QE3 will be rolled out, market will go up. However, before the announcement of QE3, most probably the market will go down significantly due to the fear and greed.

How am I going to take advantage of the market?
I have already placed long positions since months ago. My long term portfolio is 80% long in selected good businesses, agriculture ETF and oil ETF.

I will cut 50% of my holdings on oil, if WTI doesn't break through 94-95 resistance level and thinking of shorting it.
I will definitely look for good quality stocks along the way. So far, I haven't found one yet since i haven't so much time looking into it.

it's been awhile since i blogged. i have been busy with my studies.
i am currently looking into doing an oil trade. i can smell a good opportunity in there. i am going to focus to long the US light crude oil. it's making me nervous when i should buy it. timing is the key. i will need to coincide with the announcement of government intervention.